Spain’s economy enters March 2026 with solid momentum, supported by strong job creation, resilient consumer demand and continued growth in tourism and services. This update highlights the latest available data, reflecting figures through February, and shows that while growth is expected to moderate slightly this year, Spain remains one of the stronger-performing large economies in Europe.

Global risks are also increasing. Rising oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could create new pressures for European economies in the months ahead.

Spain’s labor market is showing particular strength early in the year. According to data from the Spanish Social Security System, the country added 97,004 workers in February, bringing total employment to roughly 21.67 million people, one of the strongest February readings since before the global financial crisis. Female employment also continues to rise, with more than 10.25 million women affiliated with Social Security, extending a streak of more than a year above the 10-million mark.

The figures highlight the resilience of Spain’s labor market even as economic growth gradually slows from the rapid rebound following the pandemic.

Spain GDP growth forecast for 2026

Economic growth in Spain is expected to remain solid but slower than in recent years.

The European Commission (EC) forecasts Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow about 2.3% in 2026, after stronger growth in previous years. The country is expected to continue outperforming many other large eurozone economies.

Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Spain to remain among the faster-growing advanced economies. Its latest outlook places Spain’s growth forecast for 2026 around the same range as the EC, near 2.3%.

Several structural factors continue to support Spain’s economic expansion:

• Strong tourism and services exports

• Continued investment linked to European recovery funds

• Population growth driven partly by immigration

• Resilient household consumption

Public and private investment tied to EU recovery programs continues to support infrastructure upgrades, digitalization and renewable energy projects.

Spain unemployment rate outlook

Spain’s labor market remains a key indicator of the country’s economic health.

Although unemployment has historically been higher than in many European economies, steady job creation has significantly improved conditions in recent years. CaixaBank Research notes employment growth has regained momentum in February, reflecting strong hiring across tourism, services, logistics and technology sectors.

The EC expects Spain’s unemployment rate to decline to about 9.8% in 2026, continuing a downward trend. Even so, unemployment is still expected to remain above the eurozone average.

The continued strength of hiring suggests the risk of a sharp labor market slowdown remains limited for now.

Spain inflation outlook and energy risks

Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators in Spain and across Europe as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify.

Spain’s consumer price index (CPI) held steady at 2.3% in February, unchanged from January. Across the eurozone, inflation remains below the ECB’s 2% target in February at 1.9%, suggesting price pressures have broadly cooled after the surge seen in previous years. However, it remains to be seen how much the US-Israel-Iran war will impact prices.

Policymakers warn the outlook could shift if global energy markets tighten. ECB chief economist Philip Lane recently warned that inflation could “spike substantially” if conflict involving Iran drags on and disrupts oil supply.

Rising tensions in the Middle East have already pushed global oil prices up more than 10% in recent weeks, raising concerns that higher energy costs could again ripple through transportation, electricity and consumer prices. If oil prices remain elevated, the improvement in inflation seen across Europe could slow in the coming months.

Higher energy prices can affect the economy through several channels:

• Increased transportation and logistics costs

• Higher electricity and heating bills

• Rising food production and distribution expenses

Because Spain relies heavily on imported energy, global price fluctuations can quickly influence domestic inflation.

Export strength and economic resilience

Exports remain another important pillar of Spain’s economic resilience. Spanish companies have expanded their presence in international markets over the past decade, particularly in services such as tourism, transportation and professional services.

However, CaixaBank Research’s recent note indicates Spanish exporters face growing global competition, highlighting the need for continued productivity improvements and technological investment to maintain competitiveness. Tourism and services exports continue to support overall economic growth.

Spain economic outlook for 2026

Overall, Spain’s economic outlook remains relatively strong compared with many other large European economies. Growth is expected to moderate but remain positive, employment continues to expand and inflation pressures have eased from recent peaks.

Spain’s combination of strong job creation, tourism demand and continued investment provides resilience, even as global risks linked to energy markets, inflation and geopolitical tensions remain elevated.